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TOPIC: Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted

Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15733

Many are transplanting wild roots into seed beds so they can get their own seeds to plant. I do the same thing and it is great.I still buy seeds thou. Many have mentioned growing their own ginseng plants to harvest seed from to plant so they do not have to buy seed. Here is a comparison I did to see how many seed you can get by using realistic ginseng survival rates and realistic seed production rates based on the age of the plant. So many times some sites make huge assumptions on survival rates as well as overinflated unrealistic berry and seed output per plant. So I have ran some numbers based off of more realistic conservative numbers. I have ran the numbers based off of planting 10 lbs of seed \"wild simulated style\" with a 10 % survival rate at the end of 10 years on the actual plants themselves. I have also based these numbers on averaging 18 berries per plant or 36 seeds per plant. I have used 6,500 seed per lb too. Each year there is a reduction in plant survival while there is an increase in berry output % wise on the surviving plants. I have this shown below.

Wild Simulated Method
Planting 10 lbs of \"purchased\" seed.
Year-1 58,500 plants (= 90% plant Germination)No Seeds Yet
Year-2 52,000 plants (= 80% plant Survival)No Seeds Yet
Year-3 45,500 plants (= 70% plant Survival)No Seeds Yet
Year-4 39,000 plants (= 60% plant Survival) with 25% having 36 seeds = 351,000 seeds = 54 lbs of seed
Year-5 32,500 plants (= 50% plant Survival) with 35% having 36 seeds = 409,500 seeds = 63 lbs of seed
Year-6 26,000 plants (= 40% plant Survival) with 45% having 36 seeds = 421,200 seeds = 64.8 lbs of seed
Year-7 19,500 plants (= 30% plant Survival) with 55% having 36 seeds = 386,100 seeds = 59.4 lbs of seed
Year-8 13,000 plants (= 20% plant Survival) with 65% having 36 seeds = 304,200 seeds = 46.8 lbs of seed
Year-9 9,750 plants (= 15% plant Survival) with 75% having 36 seeds = 263,250 seeds = 40.5 lbs of seed
Year-10 6,500 plants (= 10% plant Survival) with 85% having 36 seeds = 198,900 seeds = 30.6 lbs of seed

Totals = 6,500 Roots divided by 300 (Conservative #) roots per lb = 21.67 dry lbs x $500 per dry lb = $10,835 in root value.
Total lbs or seed grown over the 10 years = 359 lbs of seed at $70 per lb = $25,130 seed value

Now if you really want to have fun with these numbers you can plug them into a study comparing how many roots you will have if these seed are planted each year knowing they will come up and produce more seed and more roots to sell after being stratified and planted the 2nd year after harvest. I just didn't have time at lunch today to do all that.
lol
Latt

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15740

Way cool Latt.

So by year 4, one could plant woodsgrown @ the rate of 40-60 lbs per acre every year for 6 years. By the time one harvests the origional crop of wild sim you would have 1 mabye 2 acres of berry producing sang and no need to ever buy seed again.........nice.

I think you just kick started my buisness plan for me....LOL

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15746

Latt, Even at that scenario the seed production in a wild simulated setting is probably to high. I just don't know how a person can keep birds, squirrels, deer and other critters out of wild simulated stands.

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15748

I agree Rootman it ain't easy but I have seen it done. It can be done if properly managed but I agree with you 100% pertaining to the birds squirrels, deer and other critters. If one just walks away from the 10 lbs of wild simulated plants and leaves them alone, these kind of numbers are unrealistic even thou they are conservative and account for the decrease in plant survival and a slow increase in berry production. With that said take year 6 for example that I have cut and pasted below from my original post.

\" Year-6 26,000 plants (= 40% plant Survival) with 45% having 36 seeds = 421,200 seeds = 64.8 lbs of seed\"

I have accounted for a 40% plant survival rate by year 6 and only 45% of those surviving plants producing or retaining a realistic number of 18 berries thus 36 seeds per plant. So by year 6, 60% of all the plants have died and 55% of the plants are still not producing berries or retaining berries even at year 6

I have seen many claims on berry production and they do not take into account for a dwindling survival rate on plant population. They also jump out with unrealistic numbers on each plant producing berries. Then to further inflate the numbers I have seen statistics showing over 30 berries or 60 seeds per plant. I have used a realistic number of 18 berries or 36 seeds, survival rates and slow increases in berry output.

Even with these conservative numbers and survival rates, these numbers I posted will still be difficult to obtain if not properly managed. But this example from my original post shows what may be possible verses pie in the sky berry production projection that do not take into account for dwindling plant population and realistic berry output.
Latt

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15750

Latt, On woodsgrown where you can manage it I agree, but\" TRULY wild simulated\" that's a totally different story.

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15753

I agree and it comes down to the \"Definition\" and interpretation again for \"Wild Simulated\". I guess if you come from the school that \"Wild Simulated\" is never to be touched or managed in any way then I agree 100% with you. Maybe your definition of Woodsgrown would be more appropriate.
Latt

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15756

Pretty cool stat's, Latt. Are you a bigtime math guy? LOL.

Thinkiing about the 'sang endeavor at work, eh? Me too. Maybe if we all took longer lunches, we could get more done on the 'sang thinking... LOL.

I found this very helpful, and similar to BuckeyeFist, am going incorperate this into my thinking in my own business plan.

I really didn't have a \"seed revenue stream\" in the plan. I need to incorperate this aspect. I was only using the dried root revenue in my plan.

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15757

Thanks Whitjr, Buckeyefist and Rootman,
As long as I am dealing with real numbers I can hold my own. Now throw in some basic A+B = C algebra then not so much.

I am glad this helped some with doing some planning. It kind of helps me too with what I want to accomplish. But I still say \"Seed Production\" is a very valuable asset to ones potential profits or farm expansion. However, I would NEVER base my future on seeds. If seeds happen to grow then great and things will be that much better and I foresee seeds as a potential extra bonus if they do happen.
Trust me thou, I am going to do my best to become self sufficient on seeds. I may never sell my seeds because I think I can make more off the roots from my seeds I plant.
If I ever get to where I have more seeds than I have land to plant on, then that would be a nice problem to have to figure out.
Good luck everyone.
Latt

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15759

Well, if you cant get concrete answers anywhere, you have to start with the numbers. Way too many variables like soil, maintenance, etc to gaurantee anything accurate otherwise.

Nice job Latt, Great place to start and gives a general perspective on the issue.

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Re:Ginseng Seed Timeline - How Many Seeds From 10 lbs of Seed Planted 5 years 11 months ago #15762

If you have wild-simulated ginseng, the best advice that i can give you is this: don't count on any meaningful income stream from berries period. i dont anticipate my plants to have 30+ berries until they reach about 15-20 yrs old. Even in wild populations the average seed count for berries is very low until it reaches maturity over 10 yrs. on average in my 13 acres of wild-simulated is about 6-12 berries.

With that being said, i think those numbers look good on paper ;) and would probably work for woodsgrown.

In my opinion for seed production it would probably be better to have seperate crops. wild-simulated is not a good choice for seed production. The woods-grown method would be the better choice.

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